The Recession is Over – NOT!
“From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over,” Bernanke told questioners at a Brookings Institution conference, but he cautioned it may not feel like it’s over.
via Bernanke: Recession ‘Likely Over’, Recovery to Be Slow – Financials * US * News * Story – CNBC.com.
Hooray! The recession is over only 500,000 people will loose their jobs going on in to perpetuaty every month like they have for the last 38 months. The recession is just now begining people! Wake up, every month 500,000 people lose their jobs. The government is further in debt (to state the obvious) and China is pushing us around on the financial world stage. The American people are starting to spend instead of save again, which means they are buying these lies. Now, we can spend ourselves into slavery as well. Just wait until corporations begin to do leveraged buyouts with government subsidized bank loans on a massive scale like the auto industry (just kidding) but it’s not much different then what’s going on now anyways.
Although, I don’t think the commercial real estate crisis has hit yet but it’s comming too. Just look at the transaction data and valuation data. That’s some ugly data right there, but oh we’re out of the recession! What next? Next month will be economic boom times huh! Suddenly all the empty malls and business are going to be filled values will sky rocket and the employement problem will disappear because after all the government has fixed everything by throwing money around. Yes, we all know that if something doesn’t work just throw money at it. That’s the solution and now the recession is over! Hog wash!
Barnanke is a smart guy and all. But something is just missing here. Why would he say it’s over? Restore confidence? But to what end? To increase spending? Why do we want to do that? How is that beneficial for the long-term? I guess perhaps Barnanke like most people is living in the moment. Trying to survive every day. Perhaps “technically” the recession isn’t over as GDP may temporarily for a few months maybe even quarters will rebound but then what?
I think at this point it’s time to reallocate my investments and lock in the solid returns I’ve gotten over the last few years. I wonder how much time I have to do this? Where should I look for good returns over the next two years?
Don’t care what the guys say who got us into the mess in the first place – the recession will not be over until employment shows a marked improvement. One f my sons was laid off in January and he tells me that it is becoming more and more difficult to find anything.
The recession will correct itself in time; it always does. And it is not because of any influence from the “stimulus” or any other government intervention. Obama will claim any credit, of course. He is desperate for something positive.
There is a real danger that the Obama administration will aggravate China to the point where some trade wars are touched off and that would aggravate the trade deficit further and also delay recovery. Business is the only hope that we have to sort out the mess, but Obama and crew seem determined to muck it up so that they can force further deterioration on the free market and advance their statist agenda.
I agree to an extent. Bernanke doesn’t carry much weight with me either. But I do not think the recession is over; maybe for a short time but I think it will get worse actually. As you say, “It will correct itself in time.” I would typically agree but with all the stimulus money did helicopter Ben Bernanke dump enough money on the economy to stop major deflation? If he did stop deflation how much did the economy correct? (i.e. If he did his job then he effectively stopped the correction. If he failed at his job then the economy corrected but by how much? Obviously between him and the Treasury they dumped a lot of money so they had to make some impact.).
Yes, we’re still bleeding jobs, housing prices have fallen, etc. but have they fallen enough.
Second, if the fall wasn’t enough or if the rebound in GDP terms isn’t enough how is this going to affect the government in terms of the monies they are spending and tax receipts. What if their budgets are off and more money has to be dumped?
Even a bigger what if is what if there is a double dip and this throws their budgets way off then their is more spending and more printing. And not just at the federal level but serious issues at state levels with their spending and receipts? Could California with their various financial problems weather a double dip? What about other states? They are nearly all in debt to the federal government? They’d be demanding some serious bailouts then.
What then? This will create major fiscal turmoil. We voted for a president that promised to give us everything in the first dip? Who will we vote for in the second dip the nature of man is revealed in his trials and I’d say the first trial was very revealing!
I think Ben Barnanke knows this! There is no margin for error. What is his and other “technocrats” end game. He obviously believes that a technocrat should be the one heading the economy, he lobbied Obama for more power for his organization and not less.
(1) Are they gambling that the recovery will get them out far enough that the American people will forget and so when crisis number two comes along we’re running back into the arms of our politicians. (2) Or do they truly believe that keeping the economy from correcting is the right idea (i.e. that human nature can be managed by a formula and therefore they are operating at a high level of pride and arrogance)? (3) Or am I wrong that human greed and illogical foibles can be formulaic-ly predicted and they can halt the correction and manage human nature to be ok with high debt, indebtedness to foreign nations, government interference and involvement at all levels, etc etc. They know more then me so the answer to one of those three options tells a lot about the future. If they gambled then we have a chance with our vote to change things. If they were arrogant they may have already sunk the ship. If they are right then we all become slaves (the majority happily).
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it did not work. We have just as much unemployment as when we started, And an enormous debt to boot!” (FDR’s Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, 1939).
As usual, the technocrats are weak on history and strong on arrogance.
I believe that this current administration and its surrogates are determined to remake America in the statist image that is the cornerstone of their ideology. It is all about gaining control, and if it takes the destruction of the American economy to gain their objective ………. well, in any war or revolution there is always “collateral damage”.